Euro-area firms reported tighter bank-loan rates again. Thursday’s ECB meeting has not happened.

The European Central Bank’s policy meeting is Thursday. The document dated Monday 26 October 2026 is the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises, covering the third quarter. It says lending conditions tightened. It does not say what the Governing Council will do.

Firms widely reported a further net increase in interest rates on bank loans: net 46%, compared with 42% in the previous quarter. Large firms reported increases more often, net 55% after 41%. Small and medium-sized enterprises were net 38%, down from 43%. A net 27% of firms reported higher other financing costs, such as charges, fees and commissions, down from 31%. Collateral requirements were net 14%, up from 10%.

The ECB’s definition, in the note under the charts, is that a net percentage is the difference between the share reporting an increase and the share reporting a decrease. The 46 is not a headcount.

Availability fell by more than need#

Firms said bank-loan availability declined by more than their needs, so the financing gap stayed open. Availability was net −5% in the third quarter, after net −1% in the second. SMEs were net −5% after −4%. Large firms were net −6% after a net +4%. Needs were net −2% for firms overall, after a net +2% the quarter before. SMEs’ needs were broadly unchanged. Large firms’ needs fell. The gap indicator, need minus availability in the ECB’s construction, was net 2% after net 3%.

More firms expect external financing to be less available over the next three months, the release said. The general economic outlook remained the main constraint they named, at net 31% after 29%, and large firms were more pessimistic than smaller ones, net 35% against 29%.

The survey was conducted between 26 August and 2 October 2026. About half the firms were asked about July to September, and the rest about April to September. First-time respondents were a majority of the sample. The ECB said that makes the numerical questions — selling prices, input costs, inflation — harder to interpret this round. The warning applies to those numerical answers. It does not erase the net-percentage questions on loan rates, but it does mean this round is a weaker comparison than a stable panel would be.

What households said in September, and what Thursday is for#

The consumer expectations survey for September, published on 23 October, is the household side. Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%. The median expectation for the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0%. Expectations three years ahead and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%. One-year uncertainty rose slightly and was still above the level from before the Middle East conflict. Fieldwork ran from 27 August to 28 September.

MUFG expects the ECB to hold on Thursday. It said the composite PMI fell 1.2 points to 51.9 in October and the French PMI fell 2.7 points to 48.4, and that Moody’s left France at Aa3. It does not expect Thursday’s meeting to announce support for government bonds. Frank Elderson spoke on Monday about biodiversity and finance, at a COP17 event. That speech is not the policy decision either.

The bulletin entry is the survey. The decision is the thing that has not been published.

This is not a forecast of ECB policy and not credit advice.